Models of the Impact of Prevention

Because it is difficult to measure what does not occur – the number of infections prevented, illnesses avoided, and lives saved – scientists have developed models to help quantify the overall impact of prevention. Based on the trajectory of the epidemic before prevention programs were initiated, researchers can estimate the number of HIV infections that have been averted. These models suggest that more than 350,000 HIV infections have been avoided because of the nation’s HIV prevention efforts.¹⁹

In addition to lives saved, HIV prevention has also generated substantial economic benefits. For every HIV infection that is prevented, an estimated $360,000 is saved in the cost of providing lifetime HIV treatment. It is estimated that HIV prevention efforts have averted more than $125 billion in medical costs since the beginning of the epidemic.¹⁹

By building upon progress to date and maximizing the impact of the range of proven prevention tools now available, there is more hope than ever before of ending the HIV epidemic in the United States.