Volume 12, Number 1, January 2006

Real-time Estimates in Early Detection of SARS

Simon Cauchemez,*† Pierre-Yves Boëlle,*†‡ Christl A. Donnelly,§ Neil M Ferguson,§ Guy Thomas,*†‡ Gabriel M Leung,¶ Anthony J Hedley,¶ Roy M Anderson,§ and Alain-Jacques Valleron*†‡
*Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France; †Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; ‡Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France; §Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; and ¶University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

Figure 2. Average expectation of the temporal pattern of R_t after implementation of control measures according to the day T of the last observation. A) Completely effective control measures. B) Limited control measures. Simulation values of R are also given: before day 20, R = 3; after day 20 R = 0 (A) and R = 0.7 (B). The gray zone indicates that R is <1. Information that the average expectation of R has passed <1 was obtained 9 (A) and 12 (B) days after control measures were implemented.

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This page last reviewed December 21, 2005

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention